The Sector Skills Council (SSC) warned that the industry in Northern Ireland still faces a tough year in 2011 with employment levels likely to drop to just over 60,000 in 2011 before the sector returns to growth.
The Construction Skills Network (CSN) report for Northern Ireland (NI) shows that 2010 was a difficult year for the NI construction industry, with construction output estimated to have declined by 15%. Construction output in the province is expected to decline further in 2011, which could have a detrimental impact on an industry which is already struggling to deal with the effects of a prolonged downturn. However the rate of decline is expected to moderate in 2011 and the sector should start to expand again from 2012.
The draft Budget published by the NI Executive in December 2010 confirms the significant decline in the capital budget for Northern Ireland over the forecast period, however the plan to switch £250m from the revenue to the capital budget and the Executive's commitment to support the green new deal is good news for the industry.
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ConstructionSkills, which publishes its Labour Market Intelligence forecasts on a yearly cycle, hopes that the final NI Executive Budget and Departmental spending plans for 2011-12 to 2014-15 will provide the clarity required by our industry on Government's infrastructure investment plans in the province over the forecast period, to help create the stability needed.
Barry Neilson, Chief Executive of CITB-ConstructionSkills NI, said: "The next couple of years will be really tough for the industry. But as the CSN forecasts show, there are signs of longer-term confidence returning to the market. As the SSC for the industry, we have a key role to play in supporting construction through these difficult times. Our objective is to help the industry maintain existing abilities, develop the skills required for the future and meet the demand for new talent.
"Improving the productivity of the industry, embracing the low carbon agenda, education and training are some of the means of working which will help protect and grow the sector's skills base. Government support will help to ensure that we all have the right foundations in place, ahead of the recovery."
Whilst a further decline in construction output in 2011 is expected and will be a blow for recession hit employers, the report outlines that this further decline will be followed by a period of stabilisation and sustained recovery. CSN data shows that construction output will grow between 2012 and 2015 and as such will expand by an annual average of 1.4% across the whole forecast period.
This means that by the end of the five-year cycle, the industry in NI will require more than 5,000 new workers to complete planned projects, with an average annual requirement of 1,050.
Over the five-year period the repair and maintenance sectors in NI are expected to grow at over twice the rate of new work ones, at 2.5% and 1.1% respectively. As the former are considerably more labour intensive than the latter, the growth in the repair and maintenance sectors will support the employment growth expected over the forecast period. In contrast the public housing, infrastructure and public non-housing sectors are all expected to experience overall declines in construction activity between 2011-2015, with annual average falls of 1%, 1.5% and 4.2% respectively.
(CD)
