The paper outlines various scenarios for future structural (demographic) housing demand, using population projections based on different assumptions about mortality, fertility and international migration. It then estimates future housing demand based on these projections, considering typical household sizes in Ireland and the obsolescence rate of the housing stock. However, the paper does not include estimates of pent-up demand.
Based on the different rates of migration, household size and so forth applied in the paper, twelve scenarios are presented. On average over the twelve scenarios, structural housing demand is projected by the ESRI to be approximately 44,000 per annum from 2023-2030, and 39,700 from 2030-2040, however the paper notes that projections of structural housing demand are very sensitive to assumptions regarding international migration, household size and housing obsolescence.
As part of the next steps, the Department will review the implications of the ESRI research and the estimated level of unmet demand for revised housing targets. This includes assessing the capacity and financing needed to meet increased targets. The Department will also determine other policy priorities, such as the appropriate mix of social, affordable, private ownership and private rental housing. This work will continue across the government in the coming months, with the final revised targets expected to be published in October as planned.
-- Advertisement --
Having regard to these ESRI projections, and the Department’s preliminary analysis on previously unmet demand, it is estimated that the work will conclude that approximately 50,000 new homes will be required on average per annum. The exact figure will be published in October. The new Housing for All targets will take effect from 2025.
Commenting Minister O'Brien said: "The job of this Government is to provide the homes we need to meet demand. Thankfully supply is increasing with more than 110,000 new homes delivered since 2020, the year this Government took office. We also know the pipeline is extremely strong with work beginning on 52,000 new homes in the past 12 months.
"The research published today is a valuable contribution to our understanding of future housing demand, the findings of which are based on data from Census 2022 and international trends. It does not include latent demand and that is why my Department will now take this piece of work, and having regard to analysis already undertaken and the forthcoming update to the National Planning Framework, provide an overall average housing delivery target which will take effect from next year. Preliminary estimates put this figure at approximately 50,000 but as committed to, we will publish this and our revised Housing for All targets in the Autumn.
"The targets we have under Housing for All have only ever provided a base of which to work from, they’ve never been a limitation to our ambition as has been proven twice now with overall targets being surpassed in both 2022 and 2023.
"The Government has always been very forthright about capacity constraints and more importantly what we intend to do about them. The largest overhaul of the planning system is proceeding through the Oireachtas at present, a recruitment drive for workers is underway, the draft revised NPF will soon be published and avenues for private finance are being explored.
"Regardless of what our targets are, this Government will continue using every tool available to us to reach and exceed them where possible."
